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Time Grows Short - Comparing Timelines to Obtain Dragonwrath From Original Cataclysm
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22 일 전
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Anshlun
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With the first Firelands testing completed, we want to examine one of the new raid's hot topics: the acquisition rate of
용의 분노 - 타렉고사의 안식
. We will look at historical data from the original Cataclysm and what Blizzard could change, or not, for Cataclysm Classic.
An In-depth Guide to Dragonwrath, Tarecgosa's Rest
Original Dragonwrath Acquisition Time
The Dragonwrath questline has three main quest "checkpoints." Each checkpoint requires a different number of objectives obtained inside Firelands. The drop rate of these items changes based on raid size and difficulty. You can see the table for them below. Thanks, Vrokar for helping compile the data from 2010.
Quest
Requirement
Size and Difficulty
10N
10H
25N
25H
천리안
25x
영원의 불씨
0-1
0-1
1-3
1-3
촉박한 시간
1000x
펄펄 끓는 잿더미
18-23
23-26
48-55
55-66
화염의 심장
250x Smouldering Essences
3-5
7-9
7-9
9-11
With those drop rates, assuming a player plays only in one given raid size and difficulty, this is how long each quest will take to complete, plus the total time to obtain the legendary staff.
Quest
Size and Difficulty
10N
10H
25N
25H
천리안
5.6 weeks
5.6 weeks
1.8 weeks
1.8 weeks
촉박한 시간
7 weeks
5.8 weeks
2.8 weeks
2.4 weeks
화염의 심장
8.4 weeks
4.6 weeks
4.5 weeks
3.5 weeks
Average Time
21 weeks
16 weeks
9.1 weeks
7.7 weeks
4.9 months
3.7 months
2.1 months
1.8 months
Fitting the Original Timeline into Cataclysm Classic
Unlike Wrath or other Classic expansions, we already know the Blizzard planned timeline for the content updates. In
their announcement
, they revealed that Firelands would arrive in October 2024 and Hour of Twilight January 2025.
Plugging the amount of time that it takes for a group to complete a legendary staff, and assuming Firelands comes out on the first week of October 2024 (most optimistic estimate), here is when the average group would obtain their first
용의 분노 - 타렉고사의 안식
:
25H group would finish by November 26th, 2024
25N group would finish by December 10th, 2024
10H group would finish by January 21st, 2025
10N group would finish by February 25th 2025
This assumes the raid launches on October 3rd and represents an average; groups with good or bad luck can be faster or slower, respectively. For the sake of simplicity, it also assumes groups complete 7/7 in that given difficulty every week.
The roadmap announcement puts "Hour of Twilight" in January 2025, which could mean only the three new dungeons, but likely means Dragon Soul should release around the same timeframe, early February at the latest. With those assumptions, it is fair to assume that virtually no 10m groups will complete their first
용의 분노 - 타렉고사의 안식
before the release of Dragon Soul without Blizzard changing the cadence of the questline.
Looking at Options
With Cataclysm being announced as a "faster cadence of content," it is expected that Blizzard will also accelerate the questline in some manner. With
어둠한
in Wrath, this was done by allowing the drop of
어둠서리 조각
even without a character being in the quest, plus adding guaranteed drops Saurfang, Putricide, Blood Queen, and Sindragosa, whereas it was only guaranteed from Lich King in original Wrath of the Lich King.
While there is limited data due to this being just a testing window, the acquisition rate for the first step of the questline,
천리안
, seems very similar to the original rate. This is likely because Blizzard has yet to conclude any changes and thus hasn't changed anything on the PTR.
For Dragonwrath, you could have a similar approach with
영원의 불씨
and
펄펄 끓는 잿더미
dropping in parallel, allowing players to work on both parts of the questline at the same time, but it is more complicated with Smouldering Essences. I haven't used an item link for the essences because they aren't an item. You obtain those essences by using your
놀드랏실의 룬지팡이
(obtained from the quest after
촉박한 시간
) to siphon them out of bosses' corpses in Firelands. With that, unless they made some significant change to this step, maybe adding a different quest item to siphon essences ahead of time, you won't be able to until you finish your
펄펄 끓는 잿더미
collection.
Parallelizing both
천리안
and
촉박한 시간
already cuts down the quest time from 23/17 weeks to 16/10 weeks on 10m and from 9/7 weeks to 8/6 weeks on 25m, which is already significant.
The Elephant in the Room: 10 vs 25 Raids
The biggest struggle with it all is balancing 10 and 25m groups. If 10m groups obtain it at the same speed, it may incentivize 25m groups to split into 10m runs to obtain more staves, but if 25m is much faster, it may cause 10m groups to run 25m runs just for staves even if they can do fewer heroic bosses. Overall, the situation is unpleasant on both ends.
Current Participation in Tier 11
Looking at participation in raids from
Warcraft Logs
for the last two weeks, we have the following breakdown:
Size and Difficulty
Number of Parses
Estimated Number of Characters
Estimated Number of Runs
25 Heroic
776529
59733
2389
25 Normal
151245
12604
504
10 Heroic
577066
48089
4809
10 Normal
440622
33894
3389
Where
Number of characters
is the number of parses divided by the number of bosses and
Number of Runs
is the Number of Characters divided by the raid size.
Participation data shows that 25H is currently the most popular way of playing Cataclysm Classic. However, this happens only due to the volume of players. Looking at the number of runs, there are over twice as many 10H runs than 25H runs.
When looking at Normal runs, there are way more 10m Normal runs than 25m Normal runs, indicating that more casual players prefer 10m content over 25m.
The Stuff of Legends
Looking at all the data, my only conclusion is that there should be some acceleration for acquiring
용의 분노 - 타렉고사의 안식
, but I'm unsure what it should be. Otherwise, many players will only be able to play with the legendary during Dragon Soul Farm, if at all.
What do you think? What should Blizzard do about the acquisition of Dragonwrath? Should anything be changed? Let us know your thoughts in the comments down below!
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