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Analysis of Faction Balance in the Uldir Raid
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由
Anshlun
发表于
2018/12/01，10:22
Faction balance is always a hot subject that sparks a lot of discussions, both in how strong it is and how to fix. Today we will look at the situation of faction balance, or rather, imbalance, for Uldir and compare it to historical values from Antorus and other raids before it.
For this article we used compiled data and charts kindly provided by
HealQQ
and used in his
Medium post talking about faction balance
. Make sure to read his
full article
for more data details and obtention methods.
Back in April, when we datamined the Hall of Fame achievements,
we wrote an analysis
talking about its possible impacts in the raiding scene, using data from a similar change that happened with the PvP scene. In this article, we will talk about what happened with this balance now that almost 600 guilds have killed Mythic G'huun.
In short, the results of the speculations about the Hall of Fame results were... mixed. To start off, our assumption that the Hall of Fame would help faction balance ended up being wrong. The image below is the faction transfer footprint from guilds that completed the previous tier in one faction and ended up transferring for the subsequent tier. Between Antorus and Uldir, at least
26 guilds
from the high-end scene transferred from Alliance to Horde, while only one transferred from Horde to Alliance.
However, the Alliance Hall of Fame turned out to not be so far behind from Horde as originally everyone imagined, mostly due to the faction balance on high-end guilds from the Chinese and Oceanic realms dominated by Alliance guilds instead of Horde. The final, 100th entry on the Alliance Hall of Fame ended up being
top 306th
overall, in contrast with the 373rd position of the 100th Alliance guild in Argus. This change likely indicates that while the Horde guilds have a majority at the top of the charts, the quality of Alliance guilds improved a fair bit since Antorus, despite the number of Horde guilds.
When looking at historical data, we see that the faction imbalance isn't anything new, but that the situation has worsened in Uldir for both NA and EU regions, with over 70% of the guilds that obtained
千钧一发：戈霍恩
in each region being Horde in Uldir, whereas the average since Mists of Pandaria was in the 60~65% range:
It is important to note that this data was collected early in November, before the
recent Uldir nerfs
, while there were only 444 guilds with
千钧一发：戈霍恩
.
Looking closer to the data from Antorus, we see that, early in the progression, the number of Horde guilds with
千钧一发：寂灭者阿古斯
was somewhat higher than its final result and so it is a fair assumption to expect the percentage of Horde Guilds to fall as the tier progresses.
However, looking at the same data from Uldir, it is visible that the early wave of Horde guilds obtaining
千钧一发：戈霍恩
is fairly larger than its Antorus' counterpart, having its most radical results with average close to 90% Horde dominance for EU, against around 70% for Antorus in the same region.
Looking back at all this data some conclusions can be drawn, firstly that the faction imbalance became
worse
in Uldir as far as the high-end guilds go, with now even more of these guilds in the Horde side. However, Alliance guilds improved overall in Uldir, which could mean they were inspired by the idea of having
名人堂：戈霍恩（联盟）
within their grasp, but that can't be said for sure.
As far as why didn't the title faction split did not work for Uldir like it
worked for PvP
, the answer probably lies in the bureaucracy and costs that exist when trying to faction change. While these issues are also present for PvP players, it is easier to find 2 or 9 other individuals willing to do so than it is to find over 20, especially when it means that you have to subject yourself to a smaller recruitable population, as many people won't be willing to swap factions when recruiting due to the extra cost.
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